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Anthropic's IPO roadshow can start as early as Tuesday, while buyers push on price

Reuters reported last week that some potential investors doubted the schedule, with some seeing $1.5 trillion as the high end of expectations. The amended filing still leaves the price range blank.

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Why it matters: Anthropic plans to sell part of the offering through retail brokerages like Robinhood and Schwab, so everyday investors may get a shot at an IPO price that isn't set yet.

For information only, not investment advice.

The waiting period in question comes from SEC staff procedures: a company that lets the agency review its IPO paperwork in private has to file publicly at least 15 days before any roadshow.4 Anthropic, the Claude maker, made its S-1 public on Oct. 26.3 Bloomberg reported Monday that Anthropic can begin formally marketing the deal as early as Tuesday, making its case to investors despite last week's swoon in AI-related stocks.1

Yahoo Finance's count lands on Nov. 10 for the roadshow, too.5 By its calculations, the SEC's Veterans Day closure on Nov. 11 and a two-business-day notice rule make Friday, Nov. 13 the earliest Anthropic could set its price, and Monday, Nov. 16 the earliest it could start trading.5 The company hasn't announced a date for its first day of trading, Yahoo noted, though the Wall Street Journal and Reuters have reported it is aiming to debut as soon as the week of Nov. 16.5

Can doesn't mean will

The rules opening a window is not the same as buyers showing up. Reuters reported on Nov. 5, citing four people familiar with investor discussions, that potential investors doubted Anthropic could proceed with its planned roadshow the following week in time for a November listing.6 Reuters tied the doubts to the two-day AI market selloff that followed the Nov. 3 US midterm elections.6

The sticking point is price. Those investors want a more attractive valuation, and some see the recently discussed $1.5 trillion as the high end of expectations, the people told Reuters.6 If AI-related assets stay under pressure, the people said, Anthropic could delay until the market looks able to digest an offering that some expect to reach $100 billion.6 Anthropic declined to comment to Reuters on investor doubts.6

CNBC heard much the same. The company had been looking toward a $2 trillion IPO valuation until recently, stakeholders told CNBC, but even $1.5 trillion is now in doubt.7 One investor told CNBC that $1 trillion to $1.25 trillion is a more likely target, though that could change with market conditions.7 For a reference point, CNBC reported Anthropic's private valuation at $965 billion as of May.7 CNBC said the change in sentiment comes alongside growing concerns about AI companies' outsized spending and a sharp post-midterm slump in the market.7

Two blanks where the price should be

That's a lot of debate over a number the company hasn't written down. The Nov. 2 amended S-1 still leaves the estimated price range per share blank, along with Anthropic's run-rate revenue as of Oct. 31.2 Investors are eagerly awaiting that October revenue figure to judge whether growth picked up after a slowdown in recent months, two of the people told Reuters.6 The share count and price range typically appear in an updated filing before the roadshow begins.5

The rest of the deal is mapped out. Anthropic has applied to list its Class A shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol ANT, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as representatives of the underwriters.2 It plans to offer part of the shares to retail investors through Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood, SoFi and E*TRADE, among others.2 Selling stockholders will sell alongside the company, and Anthropic won't receive any proceeds from their sales.2 Public buyers won't be running the place, either: Class F stock to be held by a founder LLC will carry 50.1% of the total voting power on general stockholder matters.2

The prospectus also names a risk worth watching after last week: Anthropic said in its risk factors that opposition to data center development has become more organized across jurisdictions, and that its public profile could draw particular scrutiny to projects associated with it, CNBC reported.8

D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria framed the stakes for everyone else. "The market really needs this IPO to go well and the bankers on the deal surely understand that," Luria told CNBC. "The best way to set Anthropic up for success is to price the deal well."7

Sources

  1. Anthropic IPO’s Moment of Truth Nears as Waiting Period Expires, Bloomberg (via Bloomberg Law)
  2. Anthropic, PBC: Form S-1/A, Amendment No. 1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
  3. Anthropic, PBC: Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
  4. Enhanced Accommodations for Issuers Submitting Draft Registration Statements, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Division of Corporation Finance
  5. Everything you need to know ahead of Anthropic's IPO, Yahoo Finance
  6. Exclusive: AI backlash could threaten Anthropic IPO timing, potential investors say, Reuters (via Investing.com)
  7. Investors brace for lower Anthropic valuation, calling $1.5 trillion a 'stretch', CNBC
  8. Anthropic IPO meets AI backlash after midterms show stinging rebuke of data centers, CNBC

Tags: ipo · ai · sec · valuation