USDA cuts its U.S. corn yield forecast to 179.6 bushels per acre

The November outlook lowers 2026/27 production by 141 million bushels, to 15.9 billion bushels, and reduces ending stocks to 1.8 billion bushels.

By James Mitchell · Nov 11, 2026, 1:50 AM EST

Why it matters: A smaller U.S. crop and lower ending stocks leave a tighter 2026/27 supply than last month's outlook.

For information only, not investment advice.

A field of standing dry tan-brown corn in Illinois, seen from a dirt farm lane, with steel grain bins and a metal shed beyond bare trees under a pale late-afternoon sun.

The USDA cut its 2026/27 U.S. corn yield forecast by 1.6 bushels from October's 181.2 bushels, to 179.6 bushels per acre, and lowered production by 141 million bushels from last month, to 15.9 billion bushels.¹ Ending stocks were reduced to 1.8 billion bushels.¹

Sources

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-677, November 2026), USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board

More from Sainteur

Producer prices rose 6.5% in the year through October, the largest 12-month increase since November 2022
The index rose 0.3 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, after a 1.4 percent advance in September. That was against a Dow Jones consensus for a 0.4 percent increase, CNBC said.
Macro · Nov 13, 2026, 12:40 PM EST · James Mitchell
Oil is headed for a second weekly decline as the U.S. focuses on its Iran blockade, Reuters says
President Donald Trump said a deal with Iran was not necessary to end the war. Iran's military said four oil tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz; Reuters could not immediately verify the accounts.
Macro · Nov 13, 2026, 10:21 AM EST · James Mitchell
Trump says ‘we don’t need a deal with Iran’
The president wrote that those days have long since passed and directed Vice President JD Vance to focus on Democratic cities and states instead.
Macro · Nov 12, 2026, 2:00 PM EST · James Mitchell
Existing-home sales fall to the lowest level since August 2010
Sales of previously owned homes fell 5.5% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million, the National Association of Realtors said.
Macro · Nov 12, 2026, 1:46 PM EST · James Mitchell
MBA weekly average 30-year fixed rate falls to 7.21%, a fourth weekly decline
The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly average, for loans with a 20% down payment, is down from 7.30% and the lowest since mid-September. Applications rose 6.2% from the previous week.
Macro · Nov 11, 2026, 9:10 AM EST · James Mitchell
China's trade surplus exceeds $1 trillion for a second straight year
October exports rose 35.2% year on year, above a 33.5% Reuters poll forecast, and imports rose 41.6%. The surplus narrowed to $105.3 billion from $133.5 billion in September.
Macro · Nov 11, 2026, 8:40 AM EST · James Mitchell
IRS raises the 2027 standard deduction to $33,200 for joint filers, up $1,000
The deduction is $16,600 for single and separate filers and $24,925 for heads of households. The maximum child tax credit rises to $2,300, up $100, and the refundable amount is $1,800, also up $100.
Macro · Nov 11, 2026, 1:26 AM EST · James Mitchell
Brent crude slips below $90 a barrel after Trump plays down further Iran strikes
He said the conflict could be ending fairly soon, while adding that the United States was still locked and loaded. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have largely recovered, though an energy consultant said he still sees no prospect of a peace deal.
Macro · Nov 10, 2026, 2:45 PM EST · James Mitchell
Fed's Waller leans toward a December rate hike, even if October inflation improves
He said a 50 basis point increase should be considered if October's CPI reading looks like the past two months, and that hiking only a quarter point in that case would put the Fed's credibility at risk. The remarks are his own views, not a Committee decision.
Macro · Nov 10, 2026, 2:35 PM EST · James Mitchell
Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, more than expected
Core CPI also topped a 0.2% forecast, after a 0.6% headline increase in September. BLS did not publish a yearly all-items rate, because it lacks October 2025 data after a lapse in appropriations.
Macro · Nov 10, 2026, 1:50 PM EST · James Mitchell