Startups

Anthropic's IPO buyers reportedly want a $1.5 trillion price tag, not $2 trillion

Institutional investors want the Claude maker valued at about $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion, the Wall Street Journal reported, as Anthropic's new filing shows $17.0 billion in quarterly revenue and $895.4 billion in compute and lease commitments.

By Robert Harrison · Nov 3, 2026, 1:40 AM EST

Why it matters: Anthropic's listing is a test of investor appetite for AI: Reuters reported a cool reception could weigh on the wider AI market, with OpenAI's possible IPO next year.

For information only, not investment advice.

The big institutional investors lining up for Anthropic's IPO want to pay less than the hype suggested. They have told the Claude maker and its advisers that the company should be valued at around $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter, according to investingLive's summary of the Journal's story. That's well short of the roughly $2 trillion figure that had circulated in recent months.

Per the Journal, that guidance came over the past several days, after last week's tech selloff, which included double-digit drops in stocks such as Intel and Alphabet following disappointing earnings. Investors pointed to volatile markets, worries about holding too much AI exposure, political opposition to new data centers and doubts about how soon hyperscalers such as Amazon and Meta Platforms can turn their AI spending into profit.

Anthropic hasn't settled on a valuation target or on how many shares it will sell, the report said. Its investor roadshow could start as soon as next week, with the listing on track for the week before Thanksgiving, and the company is expected to propose a price range rather than a single price.

Not the first time $1.5 trillion came up

On Oct. 15, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that some investors who attended Anthropic's investor day in San Francisco had discussed a valuation of around $1.5 trillion, a significant step down from the roughly $2 trillion previously expected. Some were disappointed that growth slowed: per Reuters, revenue had more than doubled to $11.6 billion in the second quarter, then rose 45% in the third. Anthropic didn't immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment.

The difference now: the market got worse in between, and the push is coming from the institutions expected to buy the shares.

What the filing says

An amended IPO filing Anthropic made with the SEC on Monday shows revenue of $17.0 billion for the three months ended Sept. 30, up from $376 million in the first quarter of 2025. Revenue for the first nine months of 2026 was $33.2 billion, up 1,206% from a year earlier. About $600 million of price cuts, from new model versions and contractual discounts, partly offset the third quarter's usage gains.

The filing is blunt about what comes next:

We do not expect our revenue will continue to grow at comparable rates, and we cannot assure you that it will continue to grow at all.

It also lists purchase commitments and leases with an aggregate committed spend of approximately $895.4 billion, substantially all for compute and infrastructure. About $447.5 billion of that is expected before the end of 2030, and nearly all the rest between 2031 and 2045. That's the bill a public-market valuation has to carry.

Why a lower price might be the plan

A cheaper IPO isn't necessarily a defeat. Some investors expect Chief Financial Officer Krishna Rao to price the deal conservatively, favoring a strong first-day gain for buyers, the Journal reported, and some believe a debut near $1.5 trillion could rise toward $2 trillion by the end of the first session.

The stakes run past Anthropic. Reuters reported that a cooler reception could weigh on the wider AI market, whose near-term prospects investors see as hinging largely on this share sale, followed by OpenAI's potential listing next year. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan and Citigroup lead the underwriter list in the filing.

Tags: ipo · valuation · ai · unicorns