JPMorgan's asset arm projects 10% a year for bitcoin, then calls its own forecast premature
J.P. Morgan Asset Management's 2027 outlook gives bitcoin a 10% base case over 10 years, above its stock and gold projections, while keeping it out of its main portfolio models.
By Jennifer Walsh ·
For information only, not investment advice. Prices delayed.
Tickers: BTC
J.P. Morgan Asset Management has put a number on bitcoin ($BTC) for the first time. In its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, the firm projects a base case of 10.0% a year for bitcoin over 10 years, with a bear case of -11.2% and a bull case of 16.6%. That base case sits above the firm's own projections for U.S. large-cap stocks (7.5%), gold (5.5%) and a balanced 60/40 stock-bond portfolio (7.0%).
Then comes the fine print. The report says it's "premature to create a 10-year forecast for bitcoin" and frames the numbers as a look at its "potential range of outcomes." JPMAM keeps bitcoin out of its main covariance matrices (the models that map how assets move together), citing unstable correlations and volatility an illustrative table puts at 55% a year.
JPMAM also doesn't make the case for bitcoin as a diversifier. "We see bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing," the report says, and it calls the idea that currency debasement will spark a rush into crypto "wide of the mark."
A note on the other numbers in circulation: CoinDesk's early -9.7% bear and 17% bull figures come from one of three frameworks JPMAM blends, not its overall range. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argued the 55% volatility assumption is too high, Decrypt reported, though Bitwise runs crypto funds and has a stake in that view.
For holders, the signal is the framing more than the figure: a major asset manager now models bitcoin's long-run range while saying it isn't ready to treat it as a core holding, and JPMAM itself says any allocation should be "stress tested thoroughly against both bull and bear cases."
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Tags: bitcoin · banks · analysts